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Can 'The Avengers' break the $200M opening weekend mark?

With The Avengers taking in $80.50 million on Friday (the second highest opening day ever, beh...

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With The Avengers taking in $80.50 million on Friday (the second highest opening day ever, behind only Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1's $91.07 million), the question now becomes, "Can The Avengers break the opening box office weekend record ... and can do it crack $200 million in doing so?"

Well, what are the odds The Avengers does one or both of those things? Here's the historical breakdown of the opening weekends of the films that had the ten biggest domestic debuts.


Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 (2011)
The final Harry Potter film holds the top spot, fueled by a massive $91.07 million opening day. Before The Avengers posted its $80.50 million Friday, no other movie had come close to that mark. Like many of the Harry Potter movies though, The Deathly Hallows — Part 2 burned off a huge amount of its box office on opening day (and aided by midnight screenings). Its Saturday saw a 53.4 percent drop over its opening day.

If The Avengers were to follow this movie's opening weekend trends, it would debut with $149.60 million, not only not breaking $200 million, but also failing to beat Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's record. Overall, it would be the fifth highest opening weekend box office.

The Dark Knight (2008)
The Dark Knight made less than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 on its opening day, but performed much better over the rest of the weekend than the Harry Potter finale did. A 29.1 percent drop from Friday to Saturday kept the film going strong. Sunday was only slightly behind Saturday grosses.

If The Avengers were to follow this movie's opening weekend trends, it would debut with $189.79 million, breaking Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's record, but falling short of the $200 million mark.

The Hunger Games (2012)

The Hunger Games saw manageable box office drops as its opening weekend proceeded. It did burn off some pent-up demand with its midnight screenings though, skewing its Friday box office.

If The Avengers were to follow this movie's opening weekend trends, it would debut with $182.51 million, breaking Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's record, but falling short of the $200 million mark.

Spider-Man 3 (2007)

Spider-Man 3 may serve as a good model for The Avengers. If you count the other films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Avengers is an additional sequel, just as Spider-Man 3 was. Spider-Man 3 received very poor critical reviews though, while The Avengers has received almost universal praise.  Critical reception doesn't always play into box office though (which is why we're about to talk about two Twilight movies).

If The Avengers were to follow this movie's opening weekend trends, it would debut with $200.54 million, breaking Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's record and passing the $200 million mark.

The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2009)

The Twilight films are probably the best example of a rabid fan base that drives up a movie's opening day box office (usually through huge midnight numbers). After the rabid fan base has seen the movie on Friday, the average moviegoing audience may not be interested in the movie, causing huge drops over the rest of the weekend. The Twilight Saga: New Moon made $72.20 million on its opening day, but couldn't even match that number with its Saturday and Sunday combined. It appears that The Avengers has a bigger, more universal appeal than the Twilight films, so I don't expect this to happen.

If The Avengers were to follow this movie's opening weekend trends, it would debut with $158.18 million, not only not breaking $200 million, but also failing to beat Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's record. Overall, it would be the third highest opening weekend box office.

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn — Part 1 (2011)

Like its predecessor, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn — Part 1 burned itself out after its huge opening day.

If The Avengers were to follow this movie's opening weekend trends, it would debut with $155.24 million, not only not breaking $200 million, but also failing to beat Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's record. Overall, it would be the third highest opening weekend box office.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)

The third Pirates of the Caribbean, like Spider-Man 3, could also be a good way to guess how much The Avengers will bring in its opening weekend. Both Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and The Avengers are Disney films, and both have a very large audience appeal. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest kept its box office very steady during its opening weekend.

If The Avengers were to follow this movie's opening weekend trends, it would debut with $195.58 million, breaking Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's record, but falling short of the $200 million mark.

Iron Man 2 (2010)

Iron Man 2 is the highest grossing movie that's officially part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, with Spider-Man 3 being Sony's franchise. The second Iron Man movie saw just a 10.7 percent drop from Friday to Saturday, something that The Avengers could use to fuel itself forward on a course past $200 million.

If The Avengers were to follow this movie's opening weekend trends, it would debut with $201.27 million, breaking Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's record and passing the $200 million mark.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1 (2010)

The seventh Harry Potter movie, while seeing larger than preferred day-over-day drops, sustained itself better than its follow-up.

If The Avengers were to follow this movie's opening weekend trends, it would debut with $163.20 million, not only not breaking $200 million, but also failing to beat Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's record. Overall, it would be the second highest opening weekend box office.

Shrek the Third (2007)

Shrek the Third is the wild-card model, the model where things go crazy and Twitter possibly blows up. Shrek the Third actually saw a 22.5 percent INCREASE from its Friday to its Saturday, and then only fell 23.3 percent from its Saturday to its Sunday. This movie made more on its opening weekend Sunday than it did on its opening day.

If The Avengers were to follow this movie's opening weekend trends, it would debut with $264.61 million, shattering Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's record and crushing the $200 million mark. This scenario would result in The Avengers moving the opening weekend record by almost $100 million.


So, which one of these scenarios is most likely to happen? To me, Spider-Man 3, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and Iron Man 2 feel like that most comparable models. These three models average out a $199.3 million opening weekend for The Avengers

I'm going to say that The Avengers will break Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2's opening weekend record, but won't break the $200 million mark. I'm going with $195 million for the film's first weekend. Now, who wants to talk about the chances that The Dark Knight Rises breaks The Avengers' record?
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  1. Guess you were off by several million. Still it was a good model, The Avengers just turned out to be a beast.

    ReplyDelete

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'HIMYM' Recaps

BIll's Top Movies of 2013

Popculturology Editor in Chief Bill Kuchman is keeping a running list of his top movies of the year. If he sees a movie that has a 2013 release date (in theaters or on home media), it gets ranked here.

1. Gravity*
2. American Hustle*
3. The Spectacular Now*
4. The Way, Way Back*
5. The Place Beyond the Pines*
6. All Is Lost*
7. The Wolf of Wall Street*
8. Dallas Buyers Club*
9. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty*
10. Captain Phillips*

Didn't make the Top 10:
Prisoners*, Don Jon*, Frozen*, The World's End*, Blue Jasmine*, Saving Mr. Banks*, Lee Daniels' The Butler*, Philomena*, Drinking Buddies, This Is the End*, Monsters University*, Mud*, Iron Man 3*, Star Trek Into Darkness*, Oblivion*, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire*, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug*, Thor the Dark World*, Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues*, Elysium*, Pacific Rim*, Man of Steel*, World War Z*, Out of the Furnace*, The Wolverine*, Now You See Me*, 42*, The Great Gatsby*, Spring Breakers*, About Time*, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2*, Warm Bodies*, We're the Millers*, Ender's Game*, The Family*, The Hangover Part III*, Admission*, Kick-Ass 2*, 2 Guns*, White House Down*, Olympus Has Fallen*, Pain & Gain*, Arthur Newman*, Oz the Great and Powerful*, The Bling Ring*, Bad Grandpa*, The Counselor*, Last Vegas*, Side Effects*, G.I. Joe: Retaliation*, The Heat*, The Incredible Burt Wonderstone*, Identity Thief*, Gangster Squad*, Carrie*, Delivery Man*, Riddick*, The Lone Ranger*, Snitch*, Jack the Giant Slayer*

Movie count (as of 1/1): 70
An asterisk denotes a film that was seen in theaters.

It's January, so this list is almost done. Gotta pick up a few final films that got released late in 2013.